Multiple Limit States and Expected Failure Costs for Deteriorating Reinforced Concrete Bridges

Accurate predictive analyses such as those associated with structural reliability and life-cycle costing are needed for the development of Bridge Management Systems. The present paper presents models for reliability and life-cycle cost analyses of reinforced concrete bridges damaged by corrosion. A stochastic deterioration process for corrosion initiation and propagation and then crack initiation and propagation are used to examine the effect of cracking, spalling, and loss of reinforcement area on structural strength and reliability. This will enable expected costs of failure for serviceability and ultimate strength limit states to be calculated and compared for different repair strategies and inspection intervals. It was found that, for a typical reinforced concrete slab bridge, the reduction of structural capacity at the time of severe cracking or spalling is relatively modest and causes probabilities of collapse conditional on spalling to increase by about an order of magnitude. Hence, expected costs of failure for serviceability were significantly higher than the expected costs of failure for ultimate strength limit states.