1980年以来我国石油剩余可采储量变化分析

近20余年来全国剩余可采储量的变化可分为三个时期。1987年前呈升势。1988～1994年总体呈降势,1995～2000年再度增加。2000年相当上次峰值(1997年)的103.36％。但1997年后剩余可采储量年增量一直呈降势,导致2001年剩余可采储量重又出现负增长。我国储量增长已经进入相对稳定的壮年期,峰年增幅明显下降。除去复算的影响,在勘探效益有所提高、产量大致稳定条件下,剩余可采储量的增减明显受勘探工作量的制约。

Analysis of Petroleum Remaining Recoverable Reserves Variation in China Since 1980

Variation of the nationwide remaining recoverable reserves can be divided into three stages in the past two decades-rising before 1987, declining from 1988 to 1994 and rising again from 1995 to 2000. The remaining recoverable reserves in 2000 are 103.36 percent as high as the peak of last time (1997). However, the annual increase of the reserves took on a downward trend after 1997, leading to a negative growth in the remaining recoverable reserves in 2001 again. The reserves growth in China has entered a relatively stable period with the increase margin in the peak year declining apparently. Under the conditions of higher exploration performance and stable production, increase and decrease of the remaining recoverable reserves are obviously dependent on the amount of exploration work.