计及广义负荷不确定性和激励型需求响应的电力现货市场竞价方法

以国内目前电力现货市场运营机制为基础，提出一种计及分布式发用电单元功率预测不确定性以及激励型需求响应资源功率调节能力的广义负荷参与日前电力现货市场竞价的方法，并构建相应的市场出清模型。统计得到广义负荷净功率预测误差的条件概率分布，推导广义负荷日内购电期望和需求响应补偿的成本函数，揭示价格引导模式下广义负荷激励型需求响应的响应量-申报电价-申报电量之间的关系，使广义负荷原本多元、随机的报价曲线等效转化为符合市场统一规范的一元确定性报价曲线。采用不均匀最优分段技术将连续型报价曲线转化为规范的离散型阶梯曲线，并将其代入动态市场出清模型中进行竞价出清。仿真结果验证了出清电价对分布式新能源发电和负荷用电平衡情况的刻画能力。

Bidding method of electricity spot market considering uncertainty of generalized load and incentive-based demand response

Based on the current operation mechanism of electricity spot market in China, a bidding method for the generalized loads participating in the day-ahead electricity spot market is proposed considering the power forecasting uncertainty of distributed power generation and consuming units and the power adjustment ability of incentive-based demand response, and the corresponding market clearing model is constructed. The conditional probability distribution of net power forecasting error of the generalized loads is statistically obtained, the cost functions of intra-day electricity purchasing expectation and demand response compensation of the generalized loads are deduced, the relationship among the response quantity of incentive-based demand response, quoted electricity price, and quoted electricity quantity of the generalized loads is revealed, so that the multivariate and stochastic bidding curve of the generalized loads is equivalently transform to a univariate deterministic bidding curve, which is accord with the market uniform standard. The optimal uneven segmentation technology is adopted to transform the continuous bidding curve to a standard discrete ladder curve, which is added to the dynamic market clearing model for bidding and clearing. The simulative results verify the describing ability of clearing electricity price to the balance condition between the power generation of distributed renewable energy and the power consumption of loads.