| 海河流域工业用水变化趋势分析与预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 王雪梅,雷晓辉,房彦梅,王浩. 海河流域工业用水变化趋势分析与预测[J]. 水电能源科学, 2014, 32(11): 31-33 |
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| 作者姓名： | 王雪梅 雷晓辉 房彦梅 王浩 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国水利水电科学研究院 水资源研究所， 北京 100038;中国水利水电科学研究院 水资源研究所， 北京 100038;北京市南水北调工程建设管理中心， 北京 100038;中国水利水电科学研究院 水资源研究所， 北京 100038 |
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| 基金项目： | 水利部公益性行业科研专项经费项目（20131102）；国家自然科学基金项目（51279210）；国家水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项（2012ZX07201-006） |
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| 摘 要： | 工业用水的演变模式在不同时期和地区有很大区别,合理模拟工业用水变化趋势是需水预测的前提。针对海河流域工业发展迅速但水资源匮乏、工业用水变化较特殊,致使传统预测方法明显偏大的问题,以1999~2012年统计数据为依据,基于海河流域现状,采用变化系数模拟方法对其万元工业增加值用水量进行了趋势分析和展望,并参照国内外经济发展趋势,对海河流域的工业发展进行了预测。由此计算了海河流域各省市2030年的工业需水量,结果可对原规划偏大现象进行修正。
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| 关 键 词： | 工业用水； 万元工业增加值用水量； 需水预测； 海河流域 |
Industrial Water Change Trend Analysis and Forecasting in Haihe River Basin |
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| WANG Xuemei,LEI Xiaohui,FANG Yanmei and WANG Hao. Industrial Water Change Trend Analysis and Forecasting in Haihe River Basin[J]. International Journal Hydroelectric Energy, 2014, 32(11): 31-33 |
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| Authors: | WANG Xuemei LEI Xiaohui FANG Yanmei WANG Hao |
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| Affiliation: | Department of Water Resources, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China;Department of Water Resources, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China;South-to-North Water Diversion Project Administration Center of Beijing, Beijing 100038, China;Department of Water Resources, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China |
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| Abstract: | The evolution of industrial water patterns in different periods and regions have large distinction. A reasonable simulation of industrial water change tendency is the precondition of water demand prediction. Industrial development in Haihe River Basin is rapid but water resource is very short and industrial water change is special. As a result, the traditional prediction was obviously lager than the actual water consumption. A variation coefficient simulation method is used to analyze the trend of water consumption per ten thousand yuan based on data from 1999 to 2012 and the characteristics of the Haihe river basin. Reference to domestic and international economic development trend, the industrial development of Haihe river basin is forecasted. Finally, the industrial water of each province and city of Haihe river basin in 2030 is forecasted. The results can modify the phenomenon that original planning is always larger. |
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| Keywords: | industrial water water consumption per 10 thousand yuan of value-added by industry water demand prediction Haihe River Basin |
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