近50 年来辽宁省气温和降水突变特征分析

本文首先运用气候趋势系数对辽宁省22个气象站点1959-2008年年均气温和降水量资料进行趋势分析,并采用Mann-Whitney-Pettit方法（MWP）对气温和降水量进行突变分析,最后利用Morlet小波分析进行周期性分析.结果表明：（1）气温总体明显呈上升趋势;突变年份为1988年,突变后多年平均气温比突变前增加12.7％;且存在7年左右的主周期.（2）近50年来,降水量总体呈下降趋势,但并未检测出显著的突变年份;存在9年左右的主周期.

The study on change points in temperature and precipitation in Liaoning over the past 50 years

Based on the average annual temperature and precipitation during the period 1959-2008 at 22 meteorological stations, the climate variations and tendencies in Liaoning Province were analyzed by Cli- mate tendency ratio in this study. Then, Mann-Whitney-Pettit method （MWP） and Morlet Wavelet analysis were applied to analyze change points and cyclical in temperature and precipitation. The results show that average annual temperature presents an increasing trend, and has an identified change point in 1988. Additionally, the average temperature after the change point is 12.7% higher than that before, and exists the primary cycle of 7 years. Furthermore, over the past 50 years, the average annual precipitation presents the overall downward trend, but there is no change point found, and its primary cycle is 9 years.