基于LP-PSO的塔里木河流域农业种植结构优化研究

依据"适水发展"的水土资源配置原则,以最严格水资源管理制度的总水量作为控制线,考虑粮食安全,以经济产出效益最优为目标,基于线性规划和粒子群算法(Linear Programming and Particle Swarm Optimization,简称LP-PSO)构建种植结构优化模型,引入水土资源互动耦合指数对模型优化结果进行评价,并以塔里木河流域为例进行模型应用。研究结果表明:(1)基于LP-PSO算法的种植结构优化模型,搜索结果较优,可为相关部门指导种植业结构调整提供技术支撑和理论依据;(2)为进一步实现塔里木河流域种植结构优化,宜压减棉花、枣、小麦等作物种植比例,增加甜菜、大豆、苹果、稻谷等作物种植比例;(3)在没有额外水源及基于现有的"三条红线"用水总量控制约束下,流域到2020年可承载的最优灌溉面积约为240万hm~2,届时"退地"规模将超过110万hm~2,各方面压力较大,因此宜放宽对塔里木河流域2020年的最严格水资源管理制度控制指标考核,而以2030年作为种植业规模调整的最终目标,通过15年左右的时间逐步实现。

Study on optimization of agriculture planting structure based on LP-PSO

According to the principle of water and soil resources allocation of“suitable water development”，taking the total water quantity of the most stringent water resources management system as the control line，considering food security，aiming at the optimal economic output benefit，this paper constructes the planting structure optimization model based on Linear Programming and Particle Swarm Optimization algorithm，which is called LP-PSO for short． The interaction index of water and soil resources is introduced to evaluate the model optimization results，and the Tarim River Basin is taken as an example to apply the model． The results show: ( 1) The planting structure optimization model based on LP-PSO algorithm has better search results，which can provide technical support and theoretical basis for specific departments to guide agricultural development． ( 2) In order to further optimize the planting structure of the Tarim River Basin，it is advisable to reduce the proportion of crops such as cotton，jujube and wheat，and increase the proportion of crops such as sugar beet，soybean，apple and rice． ( 3) Under the constraint of the total water supply and the existing“three red lines”water use control，the optimal irrigated area that can be carried by the basin by 2020 is about 2400 thousand hm2 ． By then，the“returning land”scale will exceed 1100 thousand hm2 ． The pressure is relatively large． Therefore，it is advisable to relax the assessment of control indicators on the most stringent water management system for the Tarim River Basin in 2020，and to achieve the final goal of the scale adjustment of the planting industry in 2030，and gradually realize it through 15 years or so．