中国液化天然气现货价格的传导机制

近年来,我国LNG现货进口量呈现明显增长的势头,LNG现货市场成为我国补充气源的重要渠道和天然气供应安全保障的重要支撑;研究我国LNG现货价格的传导机制,进而提升我国在国际上的定价影响力,具有重要的理论价值和现实意义。为此,基于上海石油天然气交易中心的LNG现货交易数据,运用向量自回归模型对中国LNG现货价格与国际天然气价格、中国原油现货价格、中国宏观经济之间的传导关系及动态响应规律进行了实证分析。研究结果表明:①国际天然气价格指数波动对我国LNG现货价格具有直接和间接的传导关系,该价格指数对我国LNG现货价格的影响可达40%;②我国LNG现货价格不能直接对国际天然气价格造成影响,也不能通过宏观经济运行间接传导作用于国际天然气价格;③我国LNG现货价格与原油现货价格之间不存在价格传导关系,国内LNG现货市场与原油现货市场形成分割局面。进而提出建议:①短期合同应当基于LNG现货价格建立定价机制;②利用交易中心平台产生的现货交易价格编制和发布中国的天然气价格指数、LNG价格指数、LNG运输价格指数等一系列指数产品,争取亚太地区LNG定价权,提升在国际天然气贸易中的话语权;③推动LNG接收站公平有序开放,提高LNG接收站产能利用率。

TheanalysisofconductionmechanismofChina'sLNGspotprice

In recent years, China's spot LNG imports have presented a momentum of significant growth, and the spot LNG market has become an important channel of supplementary gas sources and an important support for natural gas security. It is of a great theoretical value and a realistic significance to study the conduction mechanism of China's spot LNG prices and thus enhance the pricing influence in the world. Taking the spot LNG transaction data of Shanghai Oil and Natural Gas Trading Center as the research object, this paper studied the conduction relationships between China's spot LNG prices and international natural gas prices, China's spot crude oil prices and China's macro-economy and the dynamic response laws using the vector autoregressive model. And the following research results were obtained. First, the fluctuation of international natural gas price index has a direct and indirect conduction relation to China's spot LNG prices, and the influence of international natural gas price index on China's spot LNG prices is up to 40%. Second, China's spot LNG prices can neither directly affect the international natural gas prices, nor indirectly influence to the international natural gas prices through macroeconomic operation. Third, in China, there is no such a price conduction relationship between spot LNG prices and spot crude oil prices, and the spot LNG market and spot crude oil market are separated. And accordingly some suggestions were proposed. First, the short-term contracts shall establish a pricing mechanism based on the spot LNG prices. Second, it is necessary to make use of the spot trading prices generated by the trading center platform to compile and issue the China's indexes (e.g. natural gas price index, LNG price index and LNG transportation price index), strive for the LNG pricing power in the Asia-Pacific region, and enhance a voice right in the international natural gas trade. Third, it is necessary to promote fair and orderly opening of LNG terminal stations and improve the capacity utilization rate of LNG terminal stations.