近60年塔里木河三源流径流演变规律与趋势分析

气候变化对全球水文及其循环特性产生了不同程度的影响,以塔里木河流域三条源流为研究对象,基于1956—2016年径流实测数据,运用趋势分析、突变检验和周期分析等方法研究多时间尺度下径流变化特征,探讨变化环境对径流变化过程的影响机理,以期为塔里木河流域水资源合理开发提供理论基础。研究结果表明:阿克苏河和叶尔羌河径流量增长趋势明显,和田河径流量呈现轻微增长趋势;三源流Hurst指数大于0.5,径流量在未来仍将保持增加走势,可做长程预测;三源流的突变点均处于1990s,突变点之后径流年代际变化日趋均匀。在年际尺度上,阿克苏河具有明显3 a和5 a准周期,叶尔羌河与和田河的3a准周期较为明显。在年代际尺度上,三源流的主要周期分别为准31 a、准24 a和准25 a;阿克苏河径流变化以年代际波动为主导,而叶尔羌河、和田河呈现相反的结果。

Analysis on runoff evolution laws and trends of three source-streams of Tarim River in recent 60 years

Climate change has varying degrees of impact on global hydrology and its cycling characteristics． By taking the three source-streams of Tarim River Basin as the study objects，the mechanism of the influence from changing environment on the changing process of runoff is discussed herein in accordance with the measured data of the runoffs during the period of 1956～ 2016 by means of studying the runoff variation characteristics under the condition of multi-time scale with the methods of trend analysis， mutation testing，periodic analysis，etc．． So as to provide a theoretical basis for the reasonable development of the water resources of Tarim River Basin． The study result shows that the increasing trends of the runoffs of both Aksu River and Yarkant River are significant，while increasing trend of the runoff of Hetian River is slight． The Hurst indexes of the three source streams are all larger than 0. 5，and then the increasing trends of the runoffs are to be maintained in the days to come，thus long-term predictions can be made for them． The mutation points of all the three source-streams are in the 1990s，while the interdecadal variations of the runoffs became increasingly uniform after the mutation points． On the interannual scale，Aksu River has obvious quasi-periods of three years and five years，while the quasi-period of three years are more obvious for Yarkant River and Hetian River． On the interdecadal scale，the main quasi-periods of the three source-streams are 31 years，24 years and 25 years respectively． The runoff variation of Aksu River is mainly the interdecadal fluctuation，but Yarkant River and Hetian River exhibit the opposite results．