基于作物水足迹的塔里木盆地水资源压力评价分析

针对塔里木盆地进入本世纪以来水资源压力相对较大的问题,为提出有效缓解研究区水资源压力的方法,利用研究区5个行政区域2001—2015年的气候、农业及水文数据,基于水足迹理论对研究区作物生产用水量及水资源压力时空分布特征进行了分析与评价。结果表明:研究区作物种植结构呈多样化的趋势发展,种植规模逐年增长;不同作物的生产水足迹(WF_(pro))在时空序列上均表现出了一定的差异,各地区WF_(pro)总体呈下降趋势,其中克州的综合WF_(pro)多年均值最高,为2.43 m~3/kg,喀什综合WF_(pro)最低,为1.42 m~3/kg。研究区农业生产依赖蓝水资源,蓝水比例为88.3%左右,蓝水资源压力较大,2004年后均表现为"严重短缺",多年平均蓝水资源压力指数(β_(crop-blue))为0.59;阿克苏和喀什两个地区的多年平均水资源压力指数(β_(crop))分别为0.89和0.76,是塔里木盆地水资源压力最大的两个地区,用水矛盾最为突出。因此,未来应通过适当降低红枣、棉花等高耗水经济作物的种植面积等方式优化作物种植结构,均衡调整地区间蓝水资源分配,以减轻研究区的农业生产用水压力。

Crop water footprint-based evaluation of water resources pressure in Tarim Basin

Aiming at the problem of the relatively larger pressure on water resources in Tarim Basin since the beginning of this century，the water consumption from crop production and the spatial-temporal differentiation characteristics of water resources pressure are analyzed and evaluated in accordance with the data of climate，agriculture and hydrology from 2001 to 2015 in the five the five administrative districts within the study area on the basis of the theory of water footprint，so as to propose a method for effectively alleviating the pressure on the water resources therein． The result shows that the crop planting structure in the study area exhibits a trend of diversified development along the increase of the planting scale year by year，while the production water footprints ( WFpro ) of different crops present certain differences in spatiotemporal sequence with an overall decreasing trend of WFpro in all the districts，in which the annual average value of the comprehensive WFpro in Kizilsu Prefecture is the highest，i． e． 2. 43 m3 /kg，and is the lowest in Kashgar Prefecture，i． e． 1. 42 m3 /kg． The agricultural production in the study area relies on blue water resources with the proportion about 88. 3%，thus the pressure on the blue water resources is relatively large，which shows serious shortage with the annual average pressure index of the blue water resources ( βcrop-blue) of 0. 59 after 2004，while the annual average pressure indexes of water resources( βcrop ) in Aksu Prefecture and Kashgar Prefecture are 0. 89 and 0. 76 respectively and both the prefectures are under the maximum water resources pressure within Tarim Basin with the most prominent contradiction on water utilization． Therefore，the crop planting structure therein is necessary to be optimized through the modes of properly reducing the planting areas of the water-consumption economic crops，such as red date，cotton，etc．，and balancedly adjusting the blue water resources distribution among all the districts concerned，so as to alleviate the pressure on the water consumption of agricultural production in the study area．