原油管道结蜡规律的灰色预测模型

原油结蜡是影响管道安全、经济和高效运行的一个重要因素。为了对输油管道的结蜡状况进行预测,掌握输油管道结蜡的基本规律,应用灰色系统理论中的模型对输油管道的结蜡速度和结蜡厚度等指标的实际统计数据进行了灰色动态拟合,建立了相应的灰色微分方程和时间响应函数,结果表明,残差小于2％,模型精度满足工程实际需要;并在此基础上对实际输油管道的结蜡速度和结蜡厚度进行了预测。

Grey Prediction Model of the Regular of Wax Deposition in Crude Oil Pipeline

Problems related to wax deposition seriously threaten crude pipeline running with safety, economy and high efficiency. In order to predict accurately wax deposition along a pipeline and study the basic law of wax deposition, grey system theory model was applied to fit practical statistic data of wax sediment velocity and wax deposition thickness, and corresponding grey calculus equation and time response function were established. The predicting re.suit indicates that using this model, the error of predicting value range is within 2%. It completely satisfies engineering practice needs. Based on grey system theory, wax deposition velocity and wax deposition thickness were predicted for an actual crude oil pipeline.