Opening up international trade in Eastern European countries |
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Authors: | Manfred M Fischer Börje Johansson |
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Affiliation: | 1. Department of Economic and Social Geography, Vienna University of Economics and Business Administration, Augasse 2-6, A-1090, Vienna, Austria 2. J?nk?ping International Business School (JIBS), Box 1026, 551 11, J?nk?ping 3. the Department of Infrastructure & Planning, The Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden
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Abstract: | This paper addresses the effect of liberalisation and transformation in Eastern Europe on international trade flows between
specific West and East European countries belonging to the Rhine-Main-Danube area. The discussion is focused on volume and
direction of trade effects using a simple, but evidently robust model of bilateral trade flows. The estimates are naturally
subject to a great range of uncertainty with respect to the likely developments in each of the countries concerned. The numbers
might end up wide of the mark in the long term, but we think they are useful nonetheless in helping to frame the issues and
focus thinking on the potential impact. The overall trade volumes tend to expand primarily as a result of a rise in living
standards and output levels, and increase the openess of the Eastern European countries. Because any increase in income will
take time, the global trade import will be spread over a number of years. The collapse of COMECON trading arrangements and
the increasing influence of market forces in the Eastern European countries is likely to lead to a reorientation of these
countries trade away from each other and towards Western European markets. |
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