地质灾害危险性评价模型的比较分析与应用

地质灾害危险性评价过程中模型的选取是评价的关键。为了研究评价模型的适用性,分析比较了常用模型的优缺点。以黄登水电站库区为例,根据适用条件选取了信息量模型和逻辑回归模型进行分析应用。通过ROC曲线的比较,两种模型都能很好的评价黄登水电站库区的灾害危险性,但是逻辑回归模型能够剔除对地质灾害贡献小的因子,从而使得评价结果更为精确。分析表明,合适的模型能够快速、有效地对地质灾害做出危险性评价,从而为地质灾害防治提供科学依据。

Comparative analysis and application of model for assessment on risk of geological hazard

During the assessment on the risk of geological hazard，the key link is the selection of the model to be used. In order to study the adaptability of the assessment model，the defects and merits of the conventional models are comparatively analyzed herein. By taking the reservoir area of Huangdeng Hydropower Station as the study case，the information content model and the logistic regression model are selected for the analysis and application in accordance with the adaptable conditions concerned.Through the comparison of the relevant ROC curves，it is demonstrated that both the models can satisfactorily assess the risk of geological hazard of the reservoir area of the hydropower，while the logistic regression model can reject those factors with small contribution to geological hazard，thus its assessment result is more accurate. The analysis shows that the appropriate model can quickly and effectively assess the risk of geological hazard，and then provide a scientific basis for control and prevention of geological hazard.