我国经济发展与能源消费关系实证研究

根据自然资源消费生命周期理论、产业结构多元化指数和能源消费结构多元化指数,本文研究了中国能源消费与经济发展变化趋势,分析了中国能源消费和经济发展之间的相互关系。主要结论包括:(1)1953～1990年期间,能源消费和经济增长变化呈现正相关关系,能源是驱动经济发展的主要因素;1990年后,经济的发展不仅是能源驱动,而且是能源和其他驱动因素共同作用的结果;(2)我国能源、煤炭、石油消费强度变化趋势都呈现倒“U”字型规律;1958～1975年期间,能源消费的强度变化和GDP的产出呈现不对称性;(3)一次能源消费增长对我国产业结构的变化影响非常显著;(4)不同发展阶段,能源消费结构的变化对能源消费强度变化影响不同。

Research on Interaction between Economy Development and Energy Consumption in Our Country

Based on a life cycle theory of natural resources consumption,diversification of industrial structure and energy consumption structure,the interaction between the gross domestic product (GDP) and energy con- sumption is explored in this paper.We find that:(1) from 1953 to 1990,there was a positive correlation between energy consumption and economy growth.After 1990,economic growth was driven by not only energy, but also other factors;(2) changes in energy,coal and oil consumption intensity all showed the inverse U-shaped curves. And the changes of energy intensity and GDP were different;(3) the growth of primary energy consumption had a great influence over the change of industrial structure;(4) the change of energy consumption structure had different impacts on energy intensity during different period.