基于五元联系数的 PPP 项目风险评价研究

为实现对 PPP 项目风险的动态分析与管理,将集对分析理论运用于 PPP 项目风险评价中。通过文献阅读、专家访谈及实地调研对 PPP 项目风险进行识别,建立 PPP 项目风险评价指标体系;通过问卷调查对 PPP 项目风险等级进行评判,利用 AHP 法确定指标权重;依据五元联系数及偏联系数理论进行各风险指标的集对势分析,构建基于五元联系数的 PPP 项目风险评价模型,并进行实证分析。研究结果表明,基于五元联系数的 PPP 项目风险评价模型能明确风险态势,使项目管理者及时把握风险发展趋势,对可能出现的风险采取有效的风险管理手段,实现从动静结合角度对影响 PPP 项目的风险因素的准确有效控制。

A Risk Assessment of PPP Projects Based on Five-element Connection Number

In order to realize the dynamic analysis and management of the risk in PPP projects,the set pair analysis theory isapplied to the risk evaluation of PPP projects. Through literature review, expert interviews and field survey, the risks of PPP projectsare identified and a PPP risk assessment index system is established. The questionnaire survey is used to rate the risk of the PPPprojects,and the weight of index was determined by using the AHP method. The set pair potential of each risk index is analyzed byusing five-element connection number and the theory of partial connection number. The research results show that the proposedmodel can identify risk situation and help to manage the PPP project risks.