合同能源管理项目节能量计算方法研究

签订绩效保证协议以及测量和验证两阶段节能量的确定是合同能源管理（EPC）项目核心问题的难点之一。分析了目前应用的线性回归模型在节能量计算上的不确定性，针对线性回归模型的不确定性以及项目实施中的不确定因素对节能量的影响，提出历史数据和能耗模拟相结合的节能量计算方法，以预测项目节能量和解决不确定因素对节能量的影响。通过案例分析了该方法在 EPC 项目中的应用，即在签订绩效保证协议阶段预测节能量以及测量和验证阶段认证节能量的过程和思路。结果表明该方法能客观准确地预测和认证节能量，计算简便、快捷、可靠

A Study of Calculation Method for Energy Saving in Energy Performance Contract

The phases of signing the performance guarantee agreement and measurement and verification（M&V）are core issuesof projects under energy performance contract. This paper analyzes the uncertainty of linear regression model which currently used inenergy saving calculation. A calculation method of energy saving is proposed based on historical data and energy consumptionsimulation. This method can predict the energy saving and minimize the uncertainty during the calculation process. A real case isintroduced to validate the developed method in the EPC project. The results show that this method can effectively address theinfluence of uncertainty on energy saving calculation.