营改增对建筑业上市公司生产效率影响的预测分析

为挖掘营改增对建筑业上市公司生产效率的影响，采用 32 家建筑业上市公司 2011~2015 年的统计数据，结合营改增政策的实施办法，模拟测算其相关财务指标，进一步应用 DEA 模型计算上市公司税改前后的生产效率，并建立面板数据回归模型。通过模拟分析发现，营改增对生产效率的影响与企业规模、生产成本的占比以及营业收入净利率呈正相关，但与企业研发投入、生产经营性固定资产新增投资比率无显著关系。应用营改增对生产效率的影响机制，并结合建筑业上市公司发展现状，为公司提高生产效率、规避营改增的不利影响提出参考和建议。

Predictive Analysis of VAT Reform on Production Efficiency of theListed Construction Enterprises

To discover the impact that VAT （value-added tax） reform brings to the production efficiency of the listed constructionenterprises，this paper estimates the listed construction enterprises’ financial data by using the statistical data in 2011-2015 and theVAT reform policy. Then，DEA model is used to calculate the production efficiency before and after the reform，and panel data isused to set up a regressive model. Through predictive analysis，it is concluded that the scale of the enterprises，the proportion ofproduction cost and the net profit margin have a positive correlated with the impact，while the R&D input and the ratio of newinvestment in fixed assets of production have no significant relation with the impact. Applying the influence mechanism andcombining with the listed construction enterprises’ present situation，this paper provides several references and suggestions forenterprises to improve the production efficiency and eliminate the VAT reform’s negative effect.