基于改进未确知测度法的光伏发电项目应急能力成熟度评估模型研究

为实现对光伏发电项目应急能力的系统分析和科学评估，基于未确知数学原理，结合施工作业特点，构建光伏发电项目应急能力成熟度评估模型。利用成熟度理论划分光伏发电项目应急能力成熟度等级，并建立评估指标体系；应用盲数和未确知测度理论改进未确知测度模型，融合熵权法建立量化的应急能力成熟度等级测度方法。结合某光伏发电项目评估其应急能力成熟度，结果表明改进方法适用性强、便于操作、贴近实际情况；利用评估指标成熟度雷达模型图，直观找出应急管理过程中的薄弱环节，实现应急精细化管理。

Research on Maturity Evaluation Model of Emergency Capacity inPhotovoltaic Generation Project Based on Improved Unascertained Measure

To achieve systematic analysis and scientific evaluation of emergency capacity in photovoltaic generation project，amaturity evaluation model of emergency capacity is established by combining the theory of unascertained mathematics and thecharacteristics of construction work. The maturity level of emergency capacity is divided according to the maturity theory，and thenthe evaluation index system of maturity of emergency capacity is developed for photovoltaic generation project. An improvedunascertained measurement model based on the theories of blind number and uncertainty measurement in conjunction with theentropy method is used to obtain the maturity level of emergency capability in a quantitative manner. An example of a photovoltaicgeneration project shows that the improved method is performed well in feasibility，operation and the result is close to realitysituation. With the aid of maturity radar model diagram for evaluation indexes，this study identifies weak links in the emergencymanagement process, which is useful to achieve refined management in emergency.