基于故障树分析的食品安全风险评价及监管优化模型

针对食品安全监管的风险水平综合量化评价及监管实践的重点环节确定等系统优化问题，利用故障树分析方法从供应链角度建立食品安全评价及监管优化模型。首先，建立以食品安全问题为初始事件，以天然毒素、生物性危害因素、化学性危害因素为后续事件，以供应链各环节作业故障和监控故障为底事件的食品安全故障树模型；然后，给出食品供应链的系统安全综合风险评价及节点重要度评价计算模型。基于深圳市2011-2013年期间畜禽肉类食品安全监管统计数据的实例分析结果表明，该模型能在充分利用整个食品供应链监管、检测信息基础上，实现对食品供应链的产品安全风险状态及其关键控制点的快速判断并有效预警，为食品安全监管实践提供决策支持。

Modeling for Food Safety Risk Evaluation and Supervision Optimization Based on Fault Tree Analysis (FTA)

A new model for evaluating food safety risks and optimizing the supervision of food safety based on the supply
chain is put forward by fault tree analysis (FTA). In the model, the food safety problems are the initial events, and the
natural toxin, biological hazard factors and chemical hazard factors are considered as the later events. The operation faults
and monitoring faults of every step of the supply chain are considered as the bottom events. Moreover, arithmetic models on
evaluating food safety risk and the importance of bottom events in the supply chain are achieved based on the methods of
probability risk and sensitivity analysis. The results of statistical data analysis on the food safety of livestock and poultry products
in Shenzhen market during 2011–2013 showed that, by using this model, the food safety risk status can be rapidly judged and the
critical control points can be discerned by taking full advantage of existing food monitoring data and information.