综合约束线性系统模型及其实时校正方法的研究

本文根据概念性模型与黑箱子模型各自的优缺点,将二者结合起来构成了一个综合约束线性系统模型,并建立相应的实时校正模型,自动跟踪修正模型的预报误差,组成联机实时洪水预报系统。通过长江三峡风滩以上流域作实时洪水预报验证,取得了较好的精度。

A STUDY OF SYNTHETIC CONSTRAINT SYSTEM MODEL AND REAL-TIME CORRECTION METHOD

This paper has synthesized the advantage and disadvantage of conceptual model and "black box" model, has founded a synthetic constraint system model and a corresponding real-time correction model, whihe can auto-follow the prediction error of correction model. Thereby, a real-time flood forecasting system of using computer is established. The real-time flood forecasting method has been verified through a example of the Yangtze River Valley up stream Fengtan of the Yangtze Three Gorges. It has obtained a good result.