| 基于故障树的套管失效模糊综合评判分析模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 祝效华,童华,刘清友,肖辞源,杨建忠,陈浩.基于故障树的套管失效模糊综合评判分析模型[J].石油机械,2004,32(2):17-19. |
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| 作者姓名： | 祝效华 童华 刘清友 肖辞源 杨建忠 陈浩 |
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| 作者单位： | 西南石油学院 |
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| 基金项目： | 石油科技中青年创新基金项目“套管系统失效分析、寿命预测与可靠性设计方法研究”的部分内容 |
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| 摘 要： | 通过对以套管失效为顶事件的套管故障树的定性分析 ,得到了 4 7个可以等效为布尔方程的基本事件。结合现场实际将具有布尔特征的基本事件扩充为多水平的模糊集合 ,在此基础上建立了基于故障树的套管失效模糊综合评判分析模型。模型中扩充后的基本事件不同程度发生时 ,顶事件发生的程度需要通过理论分析和大量现场数据及实验数据的统计分析确定。该模型为套管失效的定量评价开辟了一种新的途径
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| 关 键 词： | 套管失效 故障树 模糊综合评判 失效分析 基本事件 |
| 修稿时间： | 2003年4月26日 |
Model for casing failure fuzzy integrated evaluation based on fault tree |
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| Zhu Xiaohua.Model for casing failure fuzzy integrated evaluation based on fault tree[J].China Petroleum Machinery,2004,32(2):17-19. |
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| Authors: | Zhu Xiaohua |
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| Abstract: | According to a qualitative analysis of casing fault tree, and by taking casing failure as the top event, 47 different essential events are found out, and each event can be equaled to Boolean equation. Combined with the oilfield conditions, the essential event with Boolean characteristic are extended to multi-level fuzzy set. Then the casing failure fuzzy integrated evaluation analytical model based on fault tree is established. In the model, while the extended essential events occur at various levels, the level at which the top event occurs must be determined by theoretic analytsis and statistical analysis of oilfield data and experimental data. The model provides a new way to casing failure analysis. |
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| Keywords: | casing failure fault tree fuzzy integrated evaluation failure analysis essential event |
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