一种新的自动发电控制容量预测和获取机制

针对统一的区域电力市场尚未建立而省级间电力交易日益频繁的市场化环境，研究了自动发电控制（AGC）容量需求的预测和获取机制。从系统安全性的角度出发，构建了AGC容量需求预测和动态修正模型，考虑了负荷预测误差、机组调节性能和联络线偏差等因素。基于AGC容量集中投标的市场运营模式，通过权衡AGC调节容量获取成本和联络线偏差处罚费用，建立了兼顾市场运营经济性和系统运行安全性的AGC容量预测和获取方法。通过基于浙江省电力市场实际数据的仿真算例，说明了所提出方法的基本特征和可行性。

New framework for forecasting and procuring automatic generation control capacity

This work presented a new framework for forecasting and procuring automatic generation control (AGC) capacity in order to achieve optimal balance between economic efficiency and system security in the competitive electricity market environment. The load deviation percentages obtained for each studied trading period based on historical data were used to make a preliminary estimation of AGC capacity requirement, and then a dynamic revision model was developed to refine the estimation by taking some relevant factors such as the control performance standard (CPS), units' regulation capabilities and load forecast errors into account. A procuring method of AGC capacity was presented by trading off between penalties for tie-line power flow deviations and costs of AGC capacity procurement. A numerical example based on the historical data of Zhejiang provincial electricity market was used to show the essential features of the proposed method.