基于改进粒子群算法的渗透系数参数反演分析

针对传统的粒子群算法存在收敛速度慢、易陷入局部最优的缺陷，依据水库原型观测数据和有限元数值计算结果，基于以e为底的指数函数的惯性权重策略的改进粒子群算法，减少了求解计算时间，提高了结果准确度，构建了大坝渗透压力监测控制统计分析模型，并分别采用标准粒子群算法和改进的粒子群优化算法反算了混凝土坝体、坝基的渗透系数。与实测值的对比结果表明，基于改进粒子群算法的渗透系数参数反演拟合效果良好，计算误差小、搜索效率快、辨识参数准确度高，具有较强的可操作性。

Rainfall forecast information based-dynamic control model of flood limited water level for Mianhuatan Reservoir

In order to enhance flood water utilization rate during flood season， the dynamic control of the flood limited water level of Mianhuatan Reservoir is studied herein. The feasibility of the implementation of the dynamic control of the reservoir is analyzed from the aspects of the conditions for the dynamic control of the flood limited water level， the errors from all the previous flood forecasts， etc. Based on the rechecked flood limited water level in 2010， a pre-storage and pre-discharge operation model adaptable for Mianhuatan Reservoir is determined and the real-time dynamic control scheme of the flood limited water level for the reservoir is made in combination with flood forecast according to the short-term precipitation forecast information of the river basin， the hydrological information， engineering information and disaster information to be faced with， and then the relevant risk analysis and benefit calculation are carried out as well. Under the premise that is not to lower the original design flood control standards， the storage and power generation benefit can be enhanced by this scheme.