基于活动的出行方式选择模型与交通需求管理策略

应用基于活动的出行需求预测方法研究了长春市实行鼓励公交策略的可行性。通过分析调查数据和总结以往模型,建立了Logistic形式的出行方式选择模型,用长春市居民出行调查数据进行了参数标定和模型验证。应用已建模型初步分析并评价了鼓励公交策略对居民出行方式的影响。结果表明:建立基于活动的方式选择模型预测城市交通方式结构,可以全面有效地进行交通需求管理策略的评价研究,为交通部门制定管理政策提供依据。

Activity-based travel mode choice model and analysis on traffic demand management

The feasibility of implementation of the policy of encouraging application of the public traffic system in Changchun city was studied by the activity-based travel demand prediction method.By analyzing the survey data and summarizing the former models,a travel mode choice model based on the Logistic model was built,and its calibration of the parameters and validation was performed by means of the travel survey data of the Changchun inhabitants.The effect of the policy of encouraging application of the public traffic system on the travel modes of the inhabitants was analyzed by the built model.The results show that establishing the activity-based travel mode choice model to predict the traffic mode structure in the urban area can evaluate effectively the traffic demand management policy,providing a basis for the traffic management department to formulate a reasonable policy.