矿业城市生态承载力分析及预测——以陕西省铜川市耀州区为例

本文运用生态足迹方法计算了耀州区1949-2007年的生态足迹和生态承载力，运用SPSS软件对耀州区未来生态趋势做出预测。耀州区人均生态足迹从1949年的0.262 hm2增长到2007年的1.632 hm2，年均增长率11.73%；1983-1995年，人均生态足迹增长速度最快，增长率为58.28%，增长量为0.876 hm2，是解放初期人均生态足迹的3倍之多；人均生态承载力从1949年的0.551 hm2缓慢上升至20世纪80年代初的1.274 hm2，年均增长19.19%，之后开始逐渐下降至2007年的0.912hm2。随着人口不断增长，生态足迹和生态承载力的差距不断拉大，致使20世纪90年代初生态盈余开始消失，1993年左右出现生态赤字，表明此时耀州区的生态经济系统已经超出了其生态承载力的阈值。通过建立预测模型，得出2020年的人均生态足迹和人均生态承载力为2.6136 hm2和0.6437 hm2，生态赤字达到1.9699 hm2，说明未来如果不改变现有的发展模式，生态赤字将不断攀升，生态压力将急剧增大。

A CASE STUDY ON YAOZHOU DISTRICT: ECOLOGICAL LOADING CAPACITY OF MINING CITIES

This paper applies the eco-footprint to calculate the eco-footprint and ecological loading capacity of Yaozhou district during 1949 to 2007, and predicts the future ecological trend via SPSS. The ecological footprint per capital increased from 0.262 hm2 in 1949 to 1.632 hm2 in 2007, 11.73% in annual rise rate. From 1983 to 1995, the ecological footprint per capital had a fastest rise rate of 58.28% by 0.876 hm2, three times the beginning of liberation. The ecological loading capacity per capital increased slowly from 0.551 hm2 in 1949 to 1.274 hm2 in 1980s, 19.19% in annual rise rate, and decreased to 0.912 hm2 in 2007. As population expanded, the ecological footprint has a big gap to ecological loading capacity, leading to an ecological deficit in 1993, which indicated that the ecological system had exceeded the limit of ecological loading capacity in Yaozhou district. The results reveal that the eco-footprint per capital is 2.6136 hm2 and the ecological loading capacity per capital is 0.6437 hm2 in 2020, with an eco deficit up to 1.9699 hm2. This situation would get worse if the current growth mode shouldn't be changed.