| 应用实用动态组合模型预测城市日用水量 |
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| 引用本文： | 赵明,袁一星.应用实用动态组合模型预测城市日用水量[J].中国给水排水,2007,23(3):78-80. |
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| 作者姓名： | 赵明 袁一星 |
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| 作者单位： | 哈尔滨工业大学,市政环境工程学院,黑龙江,哈尔滨,150090 |
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| 摘 要： | 将时间序列中的日用水量历史数据引入以温度等作变量的回归分析模型，建立了日用水量非线性回归组合预测模型，同时为进一步提高预测精度，用4阶自回归模型对回归残差序列进行时间序列分析，建立了日用水量预测实用动态组合模型。以华北某市日用水量的实测数据对其进行检验，结果表明该模型具有较高的预测精度。
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| 关 键 词： | 日用水量 组合模型 预测 残差序列分析 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-4602（2007）03-0078-03 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-09-05 |
Application of Practical Dynamic Combined Model for Predicting Urban Daily Water Consumption |
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| ZHAO Ming,YUAN Yi-xing.Application of Practical Dynamic Combined Model for Predicting Urban Daily Water Consumption[J].China Water & Wastewater,2007,23(3):78-80. |
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| Authors: | ZHAO Ming YUAN Yi-xing |
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| Affiliation: | School of Municipal and Environmental Engineering, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150090, China |
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| Abstract: | A nonlinear combined regression model for predicting daily water consumption was developed by introducing history data of daily water consumption in time series into regression analysis model using temperature and other parameters as variables.Meanwhile,to increase the prediction accuracy,the residual series were analyzed using AR(4) model,and a practical dynamic combined model for predicting daily water consumption was built.The dynamic combined model was verified using the measured daily water consumption in a city of North China region.The results show that the model has a high prediction accuracy. |
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| Keywords: | daily water consumption combined model prediction residual series analysis |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
