基于灰色预测的建三江地区地下水变化趋势研究

三江平原建三江地区是国家重要的商品粮生产基地,近些年由于井灌水稻发展迅速,地下水用量急剧增加,造成地下水位持续下降并形成集中降深.文章在分析建三江地区地下水开采情况及动态变化情况的基础上,建立了灰色预测GM(1,1)模型,并采用该模型对建三江地区地下水埋深情况进行了预测,绘制了地下水埋深空间分布图.针对建三江地区未来地下水变化趋势,提出了在保证粮食安全的同时,保证水安全,综合开发利用水资源,实现区域可持续发展的建议.

Research on the Trend of Underground Water Change in Jiansanjiang Area Based on Gray Prediction

Jiansanjiang area of Sanjiang plain is an important national commodity grain products base. In recent years, due to quick development of well irrigation rice agriculture,the amount of underground water use increased dramatically, resulted in a continual decrease of the underground water table and the concentrated subsiding. This article, based on the model GM (1,1), predicted the conditions of underground water of Jiansanjiang area and mapped out the underground water table distribution. Pointed to the trend of underground water change in future, put forward the suggestions as guaranteeing the grain and water security, comprehensive development of water resources to realize the regional sustainable development.