Flutter reliability analysis of suspension bridges

A reliability analysis method is proposed in this paper through a combination of the advantages of the response surface method (RSM), finite element method (FEM), first-order reliability method (FORM) and the importance sampling updating method. The method is especially applicable for the reliability evaluation of complex structures of which the limit state surfaces are not known explicitly. After the accuracy and efficiency of the method are demonstrated through numerical examples, the method is used to estimate the flutter reliability of a suspension bridge. The uncertainties such as material properties, geometric parameters, structural damping ratio, flutter derivatives and extreme wind velocity at the bridge site are considered. The example suspension bridge is the Jiang Yin Bridge with a main span length of 1385 m built in China. The results show that the proposed method based on an empirical formula in which the limit state function is explicitly represented as a function of variables overestimates the flutter reliability of suspension bridges. The actual flutter reliability should be more accurately analyzed using the proposed method based on the deterministic finite element method in which the limit state function is implicitly represented as a function of variables. Finally, the most influential random variables on flutter reliability of suspension bridges are identified by using a sensitivity analysis.