基于改进突变级数法的矿山地质灾害危险性评价——以潞安矿区为例

为避免矿山地质灾害危险性的传统评价方法对于评价指标权重的计算以及主观赋权所存在的不足,以潞安矿区为例,提出了一种基于熵值法的改进突变级数法并用于对矿山地质灾害危险性进行评价。在系统分析该矿区主要地质灾害类型及特征的基础上,以该矿区5个典型生产矿井为例,首先根据矿山地质灾害类型及特点,构建了矿山地质灾害危险性评价指标体系,其次利用熵值法确定同层评价指标的相对重要程度,然后利用突变级数法中的归一化公式计算出不同矿井的总突变隶属度值,最后运用转化后的等级标准对该矿区地质灾害危险性进行评价。结果表明:该方法不仅避免了人为确定权重的主观性,而且能够定量区分出同一层次指标的重要程度;该方法的评价结果与实地野外调查结果基本一致,可为矿山地质灾害危险性评价和有效防治提供科学依据。

Mine Geological Disaster Risk Evaluation Based on the Improved Mutation Progression Method:A Case Study in Luan Mining Area

In order to avoid the deficiencies of the calculation of evaluation index weight and subjective weight assignment of the classical mine geological disaster risk evaluation methods,taking Luan mining area as the study example,a improved mutation progression method based on entropy value method is proposed,and the improved mutation progression method is adopted to conduct mine geological disaster risk evaluation.Based on the systemic analysis of the characteristics and types of mine geological disasters in Luan mining area systematically,the five typical mines of Luan mining area are taken as the specific study examples,firstly,according to the characteristics and types of the mine geological disasters in Luan mining area,the index system of mine geological disaster risk evaluation is established,secondly,the relative importance of the same layer index of mine geological disaster risk evaluation is determined by adopting the entropy value method;then,the total mutations membership values of difference mines are calculated by the normalization formula of mutation progression method;finally,the mine geological disaster risk evaluation is conducted by adopting the converted graded standard.The evaluation result show that the mine geological disaster risk evaluated method proposed in this paper not only can avoid the subjectivity of determining the weights,but also can quantitatively distinguish the importance of the same level index,the evaluation results is consistent to the the filed geological investigation results,it can provide scientific basis for the risk evaluation and effective prevention and treatment of mine geological disaster.