基于盲数理论的边坡可靠度分析

 针对边坡岩土体参数的多种不确定性，采用盲数理论提出一种边坡可靠度分析方法，并首次提出以边坡盲数安全系数和最小安全要求可靠度作为指标来综合评判边坡的稳定性。首先，运用响应面法和有限元强度折减法求出边坡极限状态方程，运用盲数理论建立边坡安全系数的盲数模型，解出安全系数的盲数解，并进一步求出边坡盲数安全系数和最小安全要求可靠度的计算表达式。算例分析表明，边坡盲数安全系数和最小安全要求可靠度与传统方法相比均偏低，能更安全地评价边坡的稳定性，弥补了均值安全系数和传统可靠度之间无关联的缺陷。

Reliability analysis of slopes based on blind data theory

An analytical method is presented using the blind data theory considering a variety of uncertainties of parameters of rock and soil in slope engineering. The blind data safety factor of the slope with the reliability of minimum safety requirement is firstly presented as the comprehensive index to evaluate slope stability. Firstly，the limit state equation of the slope is solved by using the response surface method and the strength reduction method of FEM，the blind data model of safety factor is established based on the blind data theory，and the blind data solution is derived. Secondly，the expressions of blind data safety factor of the slope and reliability of minimum safety requirement are established. The blind data safety factor of the slope and reliability of minimum safety requirement obtained were smaller in comparison with ones from the traditional methods. Thus，it will be safer for engineering assessment.