镇江市社会经济—水环境系统协调发展

根据城市水环境质量与社会经济发展的PSR(压力—状态—响应)框架,建立镇江市社会经济—水环境系统可持续发展模式的评价指标体系。构建了可持续发展模型,对镇江市1999～2004年水环境与社会经济发展的协调性进行分析。结果表明,镇江市社会经济—水环境发展的协调性和可持续发展潜力较好,但水环境质量略滞后于社会经济的发展。通过构建GM(1.1)灰色预测模型进行预测,表明如果能够在政策上保持有效的社会经济与水环境保护协调发展,镇江市社会经济—水环境可持续发展综合水平在2006～2010年将逐年增长。

Coordinated development of social economy-water environment system in Zhenjiang City

According to the PSR framework of urban water environment quality and social economy development,an index system to evaluate the sustainable development mode of social economy-water environment system in Zhenjiang City was established and applied to the coordination analysis of water environment and social economy in Zhenjiang City from 1999 to 2004.The result showed that the coordinated degree and the sustainable development potential were both well,but the quality of water environment lagged behind the level of economy.Furthermore,grey GM(1, 1) prediction model was applied to predicting the sustainable development level of economy-water environment system from 2006 to 2010,and the result was that it would constantly increase if effective policy were carried through.