多时空视角下计及源-荷功率不确定性的故障严重度综合评估

为了全面、有效地分析新能源与负荷功率随机波动下设备故障对电力系统运行的影响，提出一种计及源-荷功率不确定性的故障严重度综合评估模型。考虑电网运行的安全、稳定与经济性和稳暂态不同时间尺度过程，从多时空视角构建故障严重度的综合评估指标体系。利用随机响应面法处理不确定性因素并计算指标概率密度分布，获取期望归一化决策矩阵。采用G1-熵权法进行指标赋权，并对逼近理想解排序法进行改进，实现故障严重度综合评估模型的求解。IEEE 39节点系统的仿真结果表明，所提模型可以较全面、客观地实现故障筛选和排序，具有一定的灵活性和普适性，便于决策者从全局和局部视角辨识关键故障。

Comprehensive evaluation of fault severity considering source-load power uncertainty from multiple spatiotemporal perspectives

In order to comprehensively and effectively analyze the influence of equipment fault on power system operation under the random fluctuation of renewable energy and load power, a comprehensive evaluation model of fault severity considering source-load power uncertainty is proposed. Considering the security, stability and economy of power grid operation and different time scale processes of steady and transient states, a comprehensive evaluation index system of fault severity is constructed from multiple spatiotemporal perspectives. The stochastic response surface method is used to deal with the uncertain factors and calculate the probability density distribution of indicators, and the expected normalized decision matrix is obtained. The G1-entropy weight method is adopted to assign indicator weights, and the technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution is improved to realize the solution of comprehensive evaluation model of fault severity. The simulative results of IEEE 39-bus system show that the proposed model can comprehensively and objectively realize fault screening and sorting, and has certain flexibility and universality, which is convenient for decision makers to identify critical faults from global and local perspectives.