基于卡尔曼滤波的热老化性能可靠性预测

以核电站主管道为研究对象,运用性能退化可靠性理论,对主管道的热老化性能可靠性进行了研究。首先通过加速热老化实验获得的数据,分析主管道奥氏体不锈钢材料冲击性能及断裂韧性的退化过程,利用状态空间方法建立了时变性能退化量模型,并通过卡尔曼滤波对性能趋势进行预测;然后考虑冲击性能与断裂韧性之间的相关性,运用随机过程理论建立了基于多性能参数的主管道热老化实时性能可靠性预测模型,从而得到多参数下的主管道热老化性能可靠度及可靠性寿命,为核电站进行主管道老化维修决策优化管理提供了科学依据。

Performance Reliability Prediction for Thermal Aging Based on Kalman Filtering

The performance reliability of the nuclear power plant main pipeline that failed due to thermal aging was studied by the performance degradation theory. Firstly, through the data obtained from the accelerated thermal aging experiments, the degradation process of the impact strength and fracture toughness of austenitic stainless steel material of the main pipeline was analyzed. The time-varying performance degradation model based on the state space method was built, and the performance trends were predicted by using Kalman filtering. Then, the multi-parameter and real-time performance reliability prediction model for the main pipeline thermal aging was developed by considering the correlation between the impact properties and fracture toughness, and by using the stochastic process theory. Thus, the thermal aging performance reliability and reliability life of the main pipeline with multi-parameter were obtained, which provides the scientific basis for the optimization management of the aging maintenance decision making for nuclear power plant main pipelines.