我国电力需求与GDP趋势分解比较研究

电力需求同经济发展一样,在长期的增长趋势下,必然随着经济增长的波动态势而呈现出周期性的需求波动。为准确分析电力与经济增长之间的关联关系,采用了计量经济学中的时间序列趋势分解方法,首先,对搜集到的电力需求与GDP增长率数据进行季度调整,采用基于EXCEL工具的时间序列趋势分解法,对我国电力消费与GDP增长率序列进行趋势成分与周期成分的分解,分别得到电力消费与GDP增长率的趋势序列和周期序列;然后从实际增长率序列、趋势成分和周期成分3个方面,对电力消费与GDP增长率的分解结果进行比较;最后得出了电力需求与GDP增长率原始数据序列存在正的相关关系,而它们的趋势成分和周期成分之间却呈现不同关系的结论,并提出据此建立短期电力预警系统的建议。

Comparative Study on Trend Decomposition of Electricity Demand and GDP

In order to analyze precisely the relationship between electric power and economy,this paper applies time series trend decomposition method which is commonly used in econometrics.Firstly,it made a seasonal adjustment to data about electricity demand and GDP increasing rate.Secondly it applies the trend decomposition method based on excel software to decompose the power demand and GDP increasing rate series to obtain the trend series and the cycle series,respectively.Thirdly,it compares the results of decompoitision of electricity demand and GDP increasing rate series from the following three aspects: the original increasing rate series,the trend components and the cycle components.Finally it concludes that there is a positive correlation between the original electricity demand and GDP increasing rate series,but different relationships between the respective trend components and cycle components.This conclusion can be used for building a short-term power demand forecasting system.