考虑在线监测信息的电力变压器时变停运模型

变压器的可靠运行受到自身健康状态、运行状态、气象环境等多方面因素的影响,这些因素增加了变压器运行状态的随机性和复杂性,现有模型无法量化分析不同影响因素对变压器时变停运过程的影响。文中提出了基于比例风险模型和半马尔可夫过程的变压器时变停运率模型,模型可以融合不同影响因素,并考虑了影响因素自身状态的随机过程。为了克服解析法直接求解的困难,引入了蒙特卡洛法对影响因素状态进行采样,给出了变压器可靠性评估流程与收敛条件。算例分析表明了时变停运模型的合理性,以及评估算法的有效性。

Modeling of Time-varying Forced Outage Rate for Power Transformers Considering Online Monitoring Information

Reliable operation of the power transformer is affected by the health the transformer is in, environment, state of operation, meterological environment, etc. These factors make the operation condition of power transformers more stochastic and complicated. However, current models cannot effectively quantify the impact of different factors on the forced outage process. A novel time-varying forced outage rate(FOR)model is proposed based on the proportional hazard model and semi-Markov process. The proposed model could integrate different factors and consider the stochastic process of the influencing factors themselves. To overcome the dilemma of evaluating reliability, Monte Carlo technique is introduced to evaluate reliability indices with the proposed FOR model. Numerical examples show the rationality of the forced outage model, and the effectiveness of the reliability evaluation method.