| 基于经验模态分解和计量经济学模型及混沌模型的短期负荷预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 张金良,谭忠富.基于经验模态分解和计量经济学模型及混沌模型的短期负荷预测[J].电网技术,2011,35(9):181-187. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张金良 谭忠富 |
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| 作者单位： | 华北电力大学经济与管理学院,北京市昌平区,102206 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目(70971038); 高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金资助项目(20070079005)~~ |
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| 摘 要： | 为提高短期电力负荷的预测精度,提出一种基于经验模态分解、计量经济学模型和神经网络混沌模型的组合预测方法.首先,利用经验模态分解将负荷序列分解成一系列本征模态函数及余项；其次,针对不同分量的特性,建立不同的模型进行预测；最后,将所有分量的预测值求和作为最终的预测结果.以美国宾夕法尼亚州-新泽西州-马里兰州(Pennsyl...
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| 关 键 词： | 负荷预测 经验模态分解 计量经济学模型 神经网络混沌模型 |
Short-Term Load Forecasting Based on Empirical Mode Decomposition,Econometric Model and Chaotic Model |
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| ZHANG Jinliang
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TAN Zhongfu.Short-Term Load Forecasting Based on Empirical Mode Decomposition,Econometric Model and Chaotic Model[J].Power System Technology,2011,35(9):181-187. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Jinliang TAN Zhongfu |
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| Affiliation: | ZHANG Jinliang,TAN Zhongfu(School of Economics Management,North China Electric Power University,Changping District,Beijing 102206,China) |
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| Abstract: | To improve the accuracy of short-term load forecasting,a hybrid prediction method based on empirical mode decomposition(EMD),econometric model and neural network chaotic model was proposed.Firstly,the load series was decomposed into several intrinsic mode function and remainder by EMD;then different models were built for forecasting according to the features of decomposed components;finally,the summation of all results forecasted by individual components was regarded as final forecasting result.Taking Penns... |
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| Keywords: | load forecasting empirical mode decomposition(EMD) econometric model neural network chaotic model |
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