Monte Carlo calculations of iceberg draft changes caused by roll

Draft changes in iceberg roll have been investigated using a Monte Carlo technique for generating iceberg shapes of constant, polygonal cross section. Stability is assessed from the potential energy curves calculated assuming vertical but not rotational hydrostatic equilibrium. No modelling of the roll dynamics has been included. The draft changes are approximately normally distributed, with increases almost as probable as decreases. Extreme draft changes (defined to be those in excess of 20%) are not uncommon. The mean draft change, standard deviation, skewness and kurtosis depend on the number of sides in the berg model, and on the ratio of berg ice density to seawater density. In particular the fraction of extreme draft changes is a sensitive function of this ratio.