餐饮场馆建设规模优化的仿真预测

针对工程项目投资的特点和经济分析与评价的客观要求,提出了运用计算机仿真的方法确定工程项目投资的合理建设规模,为投资分析和决策提供可靠的依据.以往传统方法因缺乏考虑不确定因素的动态分析和预测,很难得出精确的结论.结合餐馆或酒店工程项目,根据对在役餐饮服务性建设项目的实测,找出影响餐馆工程项目建设规模优化的主要指标,并建立其数学模型.经统计数据处理,确定影响主要指标的各随机变量的概率分布及相关参数.建立动态仿真模型,应用计算机仿真方法预测拟建项目的最优建设规模.

Forecast on optimum scale of construction project by computer simulation

Considering the characters of investment project and objective need of economic analysis and assessment, this authors present a new method which determines rational construction scale of investment project with computer simulation. The dependable scientific basis for the investment analysis and decision can be provided. The traditional methods which determines rational construction scale of investment project have many inevitable demerits, such as lack of dynamic analysis and forecast, all these make accuracy result acquiring difficult. According to the construction project of the draft restaurant investigated in this paper, the main indexes which affect optimum design of construction scale were found out. And the mathematical model was made. By the static process on many random variables, their distribution and parameters are determined and checked. With computer simulation the dynamic simulation model are made out, presenting a method to optimize construction scale of restaurants.