| ARIMA模型在田东县年降雨量预测中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 王宝红,;康永辉. ARIMA模型在田东县年降雨量预测中的应用[J]. 广西水利水电, 2014, 0(4): 30-33 |
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| 作者姓名： | 王宝红, 康永辉 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]广西水利电力职业技术学院,广西南宁530023; [2]广西水利电力勘测设计研究院,广西南宁530023 |
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| 摘 要： | 介绍了自回归移动平均模型ARIMA（p，d，q）的原理和建模方法。根据田东县近年来年降雨量特征，建立了ARIMA（1，1，12）预测模型进行分析预测，并与灰色预测模型GM（1，1）的预测结果进行对比，对比的结果是ARIMA模型的预测精度比灰色预测模型的精度明显提高。
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| 关 键 词： | ARIMA模型 灰色预测模型 年降雨量 预测 田东县 |
Application of ARIMA model in annual precipitation forecasting of Tiandong County |
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| Affiliation: | WANG Bao-hong, KANG Yong-hui (1.Guangxi College of Water Resources and Electric Power, Nanning 530023, China; 2.Guangxi Water and Power Design Institute, Nanning 530023, China) |
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| Abstract: | An introduction was made on the principle and modeling method of ARIMA（p,d,q）model. According to the annual precipitation characteristics of Tiandong County in recent years,ARIMA（1,1,12）model was set up for analysis and forecasting. The forecasting achievements were compared with that out of GM（1,1）,showing that the precision of forecasting achievements out of ARIMA model is obviously higher than that out of GM. |
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| Keywords: | ARIMA model （Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average Model ） grey prediction model （GM） annual precipitation forecast Tiandong County |
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