考虑周周期性的短期负荷预测

本文根据周期自回归模型，在考虑小时负荷变化的日周期性的基础上，进一步考虑了一周内小时负荷变化的特性，通过修理短期负荷预测的日周期ＰＡＲ模型，建立了计及负荷动周周期性的ＰＡＲ预测模型。对一实际系统未来一周的小时负荷预测结果表明了本文方法的有效性。

Short Term Load Forecasting Considering Weekly Period Based on PAR

In line with periodcal auto regression model,this paper gives a farther study on short term load forecasting based on the investigation of the daily period PAR model.Two kinds of method are presented to revies the daily period PAR model for hourly load perdiction.It can take the weekly varying nature of power load into account and produce a more reasonable result.The short term load forecasting of a practical power utility has been carried out to demostrate the effectiveness of the methods.