THE DEVELOPMENT OF A RISK ASSESSMENT MODEL FOR USE IN THE POULTRY INDUSTRY

A simulation model that assesses the risk of acquiring salmonellosis from consumption and handling of chicken was created in an Excel ? spreadsheet and was simulated using Risk ?. The model simulated the distribution, preparation, and consumption of 1,000 chickens and was designed to determine the relationship between the level of Salmonella contamination on chickens at the processing plant exit and the risk of salmonellosis for consumers of the chickens. A scatter plot of the probability of acquiring salmonellosis from consumption of the chickens simulated versus the Salmonella load on the chickens at the processing plant exit clearly showed that highly (i.e., > 100 Salmonella/ bird) contaminated chickens at the plant exit did not necessarily pose greater risk of salmonellosis than lightly (i.e., < 10 Salmonella/ bird) contaminated chickens at the plant exit. Rather, greater risk of salmonellosis was realized from lightly contaminated chickens when they were temperature-abused, undercooked, and consumed by someone from the high risk population.