2013年中国电力供需形势展望

分析了中国2012年电力消费特点,对2013年电力需求、供应和供需平衡状况进行了预测。预测结果显示,随着各项宏观调控措施效果开始显现,全国电力需求增速将有所回升。如果不出现极端天气,全国电力供需总体平衡,预测2013年全国将新增发电装机规模7 500万kW,全国发电设备利用小时数将达到4 716 h,其中火电发电设备小时数将达到5 149 h。建议关注电源布局、可再生能源发电、电网建设和电煤价格并轨等问题。

Outlook 2013 of Power Supply and Demand in China and Related Suggestions

The electric power consumption characteristics of the year 2012 was reviewed and the power demand, supply and balance of the year 2013 was forecasted, which indicates that as a result of macro economic controls, the growth rate of national power demand will pick up, and the national power demand and supply will be balanced as a whole if no extreme weather occurs. Based on the analysis of power supply and demand in 2012, it is predicted that the installed capacity of the whole country will increase by 75 000 MW and the utilization hours of generators will reach to 4 716 h. It is pointed out that the attention should be paid on power source area distribution, renewable energy power generation, power grid construction and thermal power price system.