基于Bass模型的我国电动汽车保有量预测

准确预测我国未来10年电动汽车的保有量对于调整既定产业政策、实现电动汽车的有序发展、合理引导电动汽车上下游产业布局具有重要意义。Bass模型预测新产品扩散时具有能够全面考虑内外部因素的优势。在综合分析未来10年我国电动汽车的发展规划后,利用Bass模型对我国2020年基准油价和高油价情况下的电动汽车保有量进行了预测。预测结果表明,我国电动汽车在未来10年会有较快的发展速度,汽油价格的上涨会促进电动汽车的推广。

Forecast of Electric Vehicles in China Based on Bass Model

Predicting the inventory of electric vehicles accurately for future 10 years in China is significant for adjusting relevant established industrial policies, achieving the orderly development of electric vehicles, and guiding the layout of the upstream and downstream industries reasonably. After a comprehensive analysis of the plan for electric vehicles in future 10 years, the Bass model, which has an advantage in taking full account of the internal and external factors in predicting the spread of new products, is used to predict the inventory of electric vehicles in China under the condition of the baseline oil price and high oil price in 2020. The results indicate that the electric vehicles will witness a rapid development in the next 10 years and the high oil price can promote the spread of electric vehicles to some extent.