逐日参照腾发量预测的改进方法

利用Penman Monteith方程计算并分析了山西洪洞、山东陡山、广西桂林、湖北漳河、云南景洪及昆明等国内6个不同经纬度和海拔站点16～31年不同长度系列的逐日ET0变化规律,将过去按旬统计的天气类型修正系数缩短到逐日,引入基于Zadeh算子的模糊隶属函数,进行天气类型修正系数的模糊集运算判别.改进的数学模型在昆明和景洪两个灌区分别用于2000年和1998年逐日ET0预测的结果表明,预测精度较此前的径向基函数法和年际均值校正法分别提高18.9%和10%以上.

Improved method for daily evapotranspiration prediction

The Penman-Monteith equation is applied to analyze the daily evapotranspiration ETo variation of 6 stations located at different longitudes and latitudes as well as different elevations based on the historical meteorological data. In the analysis, instead of 10 days as a period the weather classification correction coefficients in calculated according to the statistics based on every day, and a fuzzy subset based on the Zadeh operator is introduced to judge the fuzzy group calculation of daily weather classification correction coefficient. The modified prediction model has been successfully used to predict the ETo of Jinghong Irrigation District in 1998 and Dianchi Irrigation District in 2000. The result demonstrates the prediction precision of the proposed model is better than that of artificial neural network model using radial-basis function and experiential concept model.