变化环境下滁州市降水及气温变化分析

基于1952~2013年滁州站降水量及平均气温资料,采用参数T检验法、5年滑动均值法、Mann-Kendall检验法、Pettitt法、Morlet小波分析法研究了滁州市降水量和气温序列的趋势、突变、周期特征,运用R/S分析法计算的Hurst指数预测了两者未来的变化趋势。结果表明,研究时段内滁州市年降水量呈略微上升趋势,未发生突变,降水序列存在5、2、13年三个周期,未来年降水量有减少趋势;研究时段内滁州市年平均气温呈明显升高趋势,在1993年发生突变,气温序列存在3、12年的周期,未来年平均气温有升高趋势。

Variation Analysis of Precipitation and Temperature of Chuzhou City under Changing Environment

Based on the precipitation and temperature data over the horizon 1952-2013 in Chuzhou City, parametric t-test method, 5-year moving average method, Mann-Kendall test method, Pettitt method and Morlet wavelet analysis method were adopted to detect the trend, sudden change point and periodicity of precipitation and temperature series. And then Hurst index was calculated by using R/S analysis method to predict the future trend of precipitation and temperature. The results show that a slight upward trend was detected of the annual precipitation series, but no sudden change point was detected; a periodicity of 5,2 and 13 years was found and the precipitation will decrease in the future; while the annual mean temperature increased significantly, and the sudden change point happened in the year of 1993; temperature series had a period of 3 and 12 years, and the temperature was projected to rise in the future.