基于软层次模型的继电保护风险评估

针对继电保护系统风险评估的不确定性,采用软层次模型评估继电保护风险。首先从风险的定义出发,阐述事故发生概率和损失之间的关系;其次根据负荷等级及减供负荷判断事故类型,根据历史统计数据计算该类型下事故发生的概率,利用停电损失函数计算事故发生后对电力行业及各类用户带来的损失;再采用模糊信息粒化算法处理数据,计算继电保护系统的风险并采用以模糊极大集和模糊极小集为参照基准,以海明距离为测量工具的模糊排序方法,对多个地区的风险进行排序。最终通过实例分析验证了采用软层次模型进行继电保护风险评估的正确性和有效性。研究成果可为风险管理决策提供参考。

Risk Assessment of Relay Protection Based on Soft Hierarchical Model

In view of the uncertainty of relay protection system, the soft hierarchical model was used to evaluate the risk of relay protection. First, the relationship between the probability and the loss of the fault was analyzed. Secondly, the probability and loss of the fault were calculated. According to the load level and load loss, the type of fault was determined. Based on the historical statistics data, the probability of the fault was calculated. The power loss function was used to calculate the corresponding loss of power industry and users after the power accidents happening. Thirdly, the risk of a particular accident was calculated by using fuzzy information granulation algorithm. The fuzzy ranking method was adopted to sort the risk of multiple regions which uses the maximum fuzzy set and fuzzy minimum set as the reference datum, and the Hamming distance as measurement tools. Finally, actual data in a certain area was used to verify the correctness and effectiveness of the model. The results of the study can provide reference for risk management decision making.