基于熵-云模型的城市洪灾风险评价模型

针对已有的城市洪灾风险评价模型存在的不足,构建了基于熵-云模型的城市洪灾风险评价模型,首先引入云模型理论,依据指标体系既定的等级评价标准,由双边约束公式确定相应于城市洪灾风险等级的云模型参数;然后引入混合熵权概念,综合运用熵(Shannon)和层次分析法(AHP)确定各指标的权重;最后代入实测资料,计算各指标实测数据属于各风险等级的隶属度,并依据最大隶属度原则,直观有效地确定风险评价结果。实例应用结果表明,该模型评价结果与真实情况相符,可见该模型可行、有效。

Risk Evaluation of Urban Flood Disaster Based on Entropy-Cloud Model

Aiming at the shortcomings of the existing risk evaluation model of urban flood disaster, entropy-cloud model theory was introduced in the paper. According to the evaluation standard of index system, the cloud model parameters were determined by bilateral constraint formulas. Introduced a concept of hybrid entropy, the weight of each index was assigned by Shannon and AHP. According to the measured data, the membership of each risk level for the index was calculated. On the basis of the maximum membership degree principle, the risk evaluation result was obtained intuitively and effectively. An example case shows that the model result was consistent with the actual situation. So, this method was proved to be feasible and effective.