基于超短期来水预报的大规模水电站群发电计划调整策略

针对日前计划负荷和来水预测不确定性带来的水电站群超短期调度中水位难以达到预控目标的问题,提出了基于超短期来水预报的大规模水电站群发电计划调整策略。利用超短期负荷预测信息和径流预测信息,以调度期末理想水位偏差为指标对电站进行排序,生成电站集合,实时调整日前发电计划,滚动生成超短期发电计划。以我国云南澜沧江、金沙江、大盈江和李仙江干流上的22座水电站为例验证该方法的正确性,实例结果表明,该方法可充分利用超短期预报成果,实时调整发电计划,最小化调度偏差,满足超短期调度的时效性、实用性、经济性的要求,可为类似工程提供参考。

Real-time Dispatching Strategy for Large Scale Hydropower System Based on Ultra-short Term Runoff Prediction

In ultra-short term hydropower scheduling, large deviations of water level of reservoirs occur due to uncertainty of load forecasting and inflow prediction. This paper presents a real-time dispatching strategy for large scale hydropower system based on ultra-short term prediction. Achievements of load forecasting and inflow prediction are perfectly used as the input data. The object is to minimize the deviations of water level of hydropower plants. The deviations are used to generate plant combination to guarantee load balance while minimizing spillage. The practical behavior of the proposed method is demonstrated by using the 22 hydropower plants on the Lancang river, Jinsha river, Dayingjiang river and Lixianjiang river. The results demonstrate that the proposed strategy is efficient, practical and economical, which can provide reference for similar project.