| 边际电价预测的时段分离组成法 |
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| 引用本文： | 袁鹏,左幸,马光文,王静,杨道辉,刘治理.边际电价预测的时段分离组成法[J].水力发电学报,2005,24(2):110-113. |
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| 作者姓名： | 袁鹏 左幸 马光文 王静 杨道辉 刘治理 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 四川大学水电学院,成都,610065
2. 四川大学建筑与环境学院,成都,610065 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文在分析边际电价影响因素上 ,认为其是一种与时段有关的时间序列过程。文中提出的时段分离组成法可以对该时间序列的长期趋势与随机影响项进行分别预测 ,再进行叠加。该方法符合边际电价变化特点 ,在应用上是可行的。
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| 关 键 词： | 水文 边际电价 时段分离组成法 预测 |
| 修稿时间： | 2004年1月15日 |
The compositive method with separated periods in the forecast of system marginal price |
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| YUAN Peng,ZUO Xing,MA Guangwen,WANG Jing,YANG Daohui,LIU Zhili.The compositive method with separated periods in the forecast of system marginal price[J].Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering,2005,24(2):110-113. |
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| Authors: | YUAN Peng ZUO Xing MA Guangwen WANG Jing YANG Daohui LIU Zhili |
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| Affiliation: | YUAN Peng 1,ZUO Xing 1,MA Guangwen 1,WANG Jing 2,YANG Daohui 1,LIU Zhili 1 |
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| Abstract: | The system marginal price related to the period is a time serial process during analyzing the influencing factors of SMP. The compositive method of separated period can respectively forecast the appulsive and stochastic factors of the time serial, then the two parts are added together. The method is in accord with the variational characteristics of SMP, hence it is practicable in application. |
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| Keywords: | hydrology SMP (system marginal price) compositive method with separated periods forecast |
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