基于数量化理论III的滑坡发育影响因素及耦合作用强度分析

 探讨西藏朗县研究区内滑坡发育的地质环境影响因素，借助GIS技术将影响因素指标量化，采用数量化理论III对滑坡发育的影响因素及其耦合作用强度进行分类分析。结果表明，对区内滑坡发育起主导作用的是降雨因素、坡体岩性、平均坡度、坡体前缘河流影响距，起重要作用的是坡体高度、外营力与人类工程活动、地震烈度因素，起一般作用的是土地利用因素；确定出年均降雨量、含残坡积物和绢云母千枚岩的滑坡体岩性、200 m内的河流影响距、35°～45°的平均坡度、地震烈度、高于200 m的坡体高度因素为滑坡发育的主控因素，可为区内开展滑坡评价工作提供依据；区内29个滑坡的影响因素耦合作用强度以±0.01为界进行强、中等、弱分级，耦合作用强度越高，滑坡发育程度及潜在危险性越高，对区内防灾减灾具有重要的指导意义；对分析结果以实地调查的可靠性验证，表明数量化理论III的可行性与适用性，为滑坡灾害影响因素的研究提供新的思路。

ANALYSIS OF LANDSLIDE INFLUENTIAL FACTORS AND COUPLING INTENSITY BASED ON THIRD THEORY OF QUANTIFICATION

Geographic information system(GIS) and the third theory of quantification are used to analyze the influential factors of landslide development and the coupling intensity of the factors，and to discuss the geological environment factors of landslide development in the study area of Langxian in Tibet. The results show that rainfall，lithology，average slope and the distance from the slope forward to the river are the leading factors of landslide development. The height of slope，outside force，human engineering activities and seismic intensity play important roles in landslide. The land use affects the landslide slightly. Average annual rainfall，the landslide lithology with residual slope wash and sericite phyllite，the distance within 200 m from the slope forward to the river，the average slope of 35°–45°，seismic intensity and the height of slope higher than 200 m can be taken as the controlling factors which can provide reference for the assessment of landslide. The coupling intensity of influential factors of 29 landslides in the study area can be divided into 3 levels as strong，medium and weak which are bounded by ±0.01. The higher the coupling intensity is，the higher the risk of landslide and the degree of landslide development are. The above-mentioned conclusions are important to the disaster prevention and mitigation. The analytical results have been verified by site investigation which certifies the feasibility and the adaptation of third theory of quantification and they can provide new idea for analyzing the factors of landslides.