地区间货物运输量预测方法谱系

本文整理了近些年地区间(城市间)货物运输量预测方法的研究。论文分析了和旅客运输相比,地区间货物运输的特点,提出了货物运输需求量的预测在理论和方法上和客流需求量的预测有所不同的依据。将以往的地区间货运量预测模型按不同阶段做了分类整理。其次,根据物流的行为者将地区间货运量预测模型分为计量经济学模型、空间相互作用模型及网络模型等类型。较为详尽地分析了各类预测模型的特点。并结合我国物流业的发展现状,对货物运输量预测方法研究的发展方向进行了展望。

A PEDIGREE OF RESEARCH FOR INTERCITY FREIGHT TRANSPORTATION DEMAND

In this paper, recent researches for intercity freight transportation demand are briefly reviewed. And based on the development trend of logistics industry in China, the tasks for estimating the intercity freight transportation demand are presented. Depending on the characters of intercity freight transportation compared to the traveler transportation, the proof that different forecasting theory and methods should be taken for the freight transportation demand and traveler demand is proposed. In the meantime, according to the different stages, the forecasting models for the intercity freight transportation demand are classified. And depending on the freight transportation doer, the intercity freight transportation demand forecast models are divided into several catalogues: econometric model, mutual spatial action model, network model and so on. The characters of each model are also discussed in detail. Considering the development condition nowadays in China, the development orientation of freight transportation demand forecast is expected.